How we did every week
How we did
Every week, our pregame calls against what actually happened: every D2 match, the ones with a top-25 team, and the coaches' poll on the same matches. Only win chances saved before each match count.
Last week: Oct 26 – Nov 1
82%
winners picked · 50 of 61
67%
matches with a top-25 team · 4 of 6
0%
top-25 meetings · 0 of 1
38 of 44
70%+ favorites won (expected about 40)
71% vs. 71%
us vs. the coaches' poll, same 7 matches
Our biggest misses
- Oct 27: West Ala. lost to Christian Brothers 0–3 · we gave West Ala. 95%
- Oct 27: #25 Minn. Duluth lost to MSU Moorhead 2–3 · we gave Minn. Duluth 86%
- Oct 27: Benedict lost to Savannah St. 1–3 · we gave Benedict 80%
- Oct 27: #3 Wayne St. (NE) lost to #13 Southwest Minn. St. 0–3 · we gave Wayne St. (NE) 80%
- Oct 27: Holy Family lost to Georgian Court 1–3 · we gave Holy Family 79%
Calls the poll got wrong
None this week.
The season so far
79%
winners picked · 872 of 1103
86%
matches with a top-25 team · 147 of 170
61%
top-25 meetings · 11 of 18
655 of 754
70%+ favorites won (expected about 661)
84% vs. 85%
us vs. the coaches' poll, same 169 matches
| Week | Matches | Picked | With a top-25 team | Top-25 meetings | Coaches' poll, same matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26 – Nov 1 | 61 | 82% | 67% of 6 | 0% of 1 | us 71%, poll 71% |
| Oct 19 – Oct 25 | 287 | 82% | 92% of 49 | 75% of 4 | us 92%, poll 90% |
| Oct 12 – Oct 18 | 338 | 78% | 82% of 49 | 60% of 5 | us 80%, poll 80% |
| Oct 5 – Oct 11 | 287 | 79% | 84% of 45 | 57% of 7 | us 80%, poll 84% |
| Sep 28 – Oct 4 | 130 | 75% | 95% of 21 | 100% of 1 | us 89%, poll 94% |
Only odds saved before each match count; nothing is recomputed after the fact. "Top 25" is our ranking going into the match. The coaches' poll is scored the simple way: the better-ranked team should win (unranked counts below every ranked team), on the matches where it ranks at least one team.
How the rating works and how it compares with other systems over three seasons: How we rank.